Data | A State-wise comparison of coronavirus infection doubling rates and testing

Only Kerala has managed to slow down its rate of growth of COVID-19 infections substantially among major States and can be confident about arresting the spread because of an above-average testing rate. Uttar Pradesh & West Bengal have a higher rate of growth of infections and very low testing rates.

Case progression

The chart plots the day-wise progression of confirmed cases since the 50th case in each State.

Which States have seen a rise and which States have slowed down the spread?

image/svg+xml Maharashtra Rajasthan U.P. W.B. Delhi Gujarat T.N. M.P. Telangana 1000 500 100 50 1 4 10 20 Kerala Days since 50th case (log scale) Confirmed cases (log scale) Punjab J&K The infection curve for States like Gujarat, U.P. and M.P. is getting steeper with cases doubling in less than 7 days


(If chart doesn’t appear in full, click here)

New cases in Kerala have reduced to a crawl (doubling rate of 71 days nearly) suggesting that the State has managed to flatten the curve.

Also read: Data | Who gets tested for coronavirus determines infection rates better than how many are

Doubling rates

The chart plots the doubling rate* (in the last 10 days for a State with more than 250 cases) and the tests per million people in that State. The greater the size of a circle, the higher the cases.

Doubling rates vs. test rates

image/svg+xml Samples tested per million population Doubling rate (log scale) 345710152030405070 Doubling Time 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Tests/million Delhi Rajasthan J&K Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Haryana Karnataka Telangana Punjab U.P. W.B. Bihar M.P A.P. 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 3 10 20 50 70 Gujarat has the fastest doubling rate of just 4.1 days Kerala has the slowest doubling rate of 70.6 days The States in the top right have the highest doubling rates. They also conduct the most number of tests per million

*Doubling rate is the estimated number of days it takes for cases to double in a State. The higher the rate, the fewer the new infections in a State

Cases are growing quickly in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, but the high testing rates suggest that more infected people are being identified.

Infections in West Bengal, Bihar & Uttar Pradesh are growing  quickly but the test rates in these States are much below average.

Tamil Nadu, Jammu and Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh. & Delhi are also relatively better off in slowing down the rate of increase of infected cases. They also have high testing rates.

Cases are rising slowly in Telangana and Punjab, but with lower testing rates, these States are not out of the woods yet.

Also read: Coronavirus | ICMR asks States to stop using rapid antibody tests for next 2 days

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